Survivor Planner

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Week 2 survivor picks preview

The 6 highest win probabilities on the Week 2 board, from sportsbook moneylines with the vig removed. The planner exists because the best team this week may be worth far more in a later week, and picking it now strands you.

#	Team	Opponent	Win prob	Spread
1	San Francisco 49ers	vs Miami Dolphins	86.3%	13.5
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	vs Cleveland Browns	78.2%	8.5
3	Baltimore Ravens	vs New Orleans Saints	76.0%	8.5
4	Los Angeles Rams	vs New York Giants	74.8%	7.0
5	Philadelphia Eagles	at Tennessee Titans	73.4%	7.0
6	Los Angeles Chargers	vs Las Vegas Raiders	72.2%	6.5

Two picks closer together than 1.3 percentage points are reported as the same pick, because that is the market's own measured calibration error over 5,075 games. Presenting a smaller gap as an edge would be inventing signal.

Updated 2026-09-16 23:12 UTC.

A free account adds the multi-week path that avoids stranding yourself, feedback on a pick you already have in mind, and the plain-language filters for pool size and contrarian weighting. What the model can and cannot do.

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League settings

Start week The week you are picking for. Set it to the first week you have not locked a pick in. Everything below re-solves against that week's games and prices. Plan through How deep you are trying to survive. It barely moves this week's pick. What it changes is the "survive to week N" number, and it warns you when your remaining teams cannot stretch that far at all. Look-ahead How many weeks are solved together before committing to this one. Three is the default because two to three weeks measured best over sixteen seasons, and planning the whole season measured worst. Looking further trades real sportsbook prices for guesses about later weeks. Entries still alive Roughly how many entries are left in your pool. This changes the prize-share and "field left" figures you see. It does not change which team is recommended: the ranking is identical from ten entries to ten thousand, because pool size scales the payoff without reordering the picks. Your live entries How many entries you are playing. Above one, the tool spreads them over different teams. Two entries on different teams survived 96.6% of weeks against 84.1% for two entries on the same team, measured on the 2024-25 holdout. Recommendation mode Safest path maximises your chance of surviving. Pool edge shades toward teams fewer entries hold. Safest path is the default because the contrarian weight did not hold up when it was tested properly: across six seasons it survived fewer weeks every time, and beat the safe pick in one season of six. Use pool edge only if you have a specific read on your pool.

Thinking about a pick?

Tap the teams you are considering this week. Each one is scored the same way the recommendation is, on the chance of surviving the whole look-ahead after committing that team, and told apart from the recommendation only when the gap is bigger than the market's own margin of error.

What the field is picking

Teams you have already used

Your multi-entry card

Different teams reduce the chance that one upset wipes out every entry. The tool only diversifies among serious options; it does not add a bad pick just to be different.

This week

Best pick and the next two

Each option is scored by the chance of surviving the whole look-ahead after committing that team, not by this week's win probability alone. Early in the season those are nearly the same because 32 teams are available; the gap widens as the pool of safe teams runs down.

Season grid

Win probability 30% to 90% recommended path look-ahead market projected from power ratings · bye week